DAQMAN – Sunday 25 July
7-1 DAQMAN JACKPOT AT BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman yesterday landed his third winning jackpot bet in July, taking 9.4 Betdaq offers about Hawkeyethenoo (won 7-1). His previous jackpot scorers this month were Fireback (won 12-1 from 26.0) and Times Up (won 9-1).
FIVE LAYS IN A ROW: After three successful lays out of three on Friday, his sole Saturday Bismarck, Ocean Bay (3rd 13-8), sank in the opener at Ascot to give him a bag of five paper favourites in a row.
NOW IT’S 13 OUT OF 14: That brings his current sequence to 13 out of 14, just under 93%. His overall total is now 428 from 560; that maintains his long-term 76% strike rate.
That’s twice in 50 days, I’ve read about ‘the new champion’ with words like ‘awesome’ attached, first to a seven-lengths Derby demolition then, yesterday, to an 11-lengths King George romp. There’s something wrong somewhere, particularly when the first horse to be ‘awesome’ trails in like a lame hack behind the second one. Why no Stewards’ inquiry?
I’m not being dramatic; in fact, I had waited so long to oppose Workforce (see the archive of Tuesday’s column) that I talked myself out of it. It happens; as the man said, it happens to the best and it happens to the rest.
Any inquest on Workforce has been relegated to small print on the inside pages: there were ‘slight concerns’ about his going right-handed; the ground was a ‘potential issue’; but – and this is more like it – ‘this was a shadow of the horse we saw early in June.’
Sir Michael Stoute might well ‘do a Harbinger’ on him (Harbinger trailed in last in the Voltigeur last season); the trainer proved yet again with Harbinger that he is a master of patience and progressing the older horse.
But punter and public need some proper, official explanation of a complete flop like yesterday’s. You get the impression that it’s not nice to ask; that it’s shrugged off as one of those things and that it’s bad manners to spoil the party.
Well, here’s another question that’s not nice to ask: what has happened to our Derby when seven successive King Georges are won by older horses and only Sinndar in the last 15 years has gone on from Epsom to take the Arc (in fact, it’s now 21 years since an English trainer won the Longchamp race).
Unfortunately, this is one question to which we know one of the key answers: the English Derby is now way, way down the list of world races. Even the Irish Derby – it got the second again yesterday – has had better results in both King George and Arc.
My own personal admiration for Harbinger was seeing him still running straight as the proverbial gun-barrel at the end of a fast-run race; I’d followed his progress with my own money and was sorry to miss him yesterday.
But, as I said then, are we really going to see a Hardwicke winner take a King George? For want of repeating myself, what on earth has happened to our three-year-olds?
They’re asking what day we should run the Derby. I’d run it on a Monday, if I were them; so it doesn’t get in the way of the big races!
3.25 Ascot Despite the small field, there could be a strong gallop: that should favour the hold-up horses, so Richard Hills is probably right to prefer Kanaf (4.5 on Betdaq) to the pacey Alkhataaf but may struggle to give 7lb to Kings ‘N Dreams (5.9), transformed of late by blinkers.
4.00 Ascot Dishdasha has won only on AW, though is better off with King’s Masque, who holds Seeking The Buck on this year’s form. But ‘Buck’ is back in blinkers today and, with The Which Doctor hard to win with, I’m dutching with the consistent Pendragon from a stable doing well.
4.35 Ascot Bay Willow is a back-and-lay bet here, almost always trading lower than his SP in running. However, he couldn’t defy a penalty at Newmarket against Times Up who might have been pressed by Ouster had that one had a clear run.
Bay Willow could set it up for CD-winning stablemate Record Breaker, for whom Richard Hills is an interesting booking.
Opera Gal can also take a keen hold but winning at Warwick will have done her the world of good and this is the time of year for fillies to come into their own.
Red Merlin is now down 7lb since the Spring and is one for the notebook for the autumn. Keep a close eye on him; the stable is being patient.
5.10 Ascot Stands’ side to centre course won three races up to 7f yesterday; the big handicap saw far-side finishers trail in 7th, 18th, 19th and 20th of 21, with most high-drawn horses coming over (12 won from 7, 10 and 5). I wouldn’t want to back anything in the high 10 here.
Canadian Danehill stands out, now racing off only 85; age doesn’t worry these sprinters, he won twice last July, and his form on turf in 2009 rated 79 to 91 was: 12011. It’s a long time since he ran, so is probably one to take out of the race.
Masamah has a touch of class for this, dropping from a Listed and winner of a class-2 but, since he broke his maiden, the grey’s success has come on tight tracks at Lingfield and Chester, whereas for example Canadian Danehill has scored in the wide-open spaces of both Newmarket’s Rowley Mile and July tracks.
Secret Millionaire also has a Chester-Lingfield profile and his stable is out of form, as is Tony The Tap’s yard. Cheveton would come into it if the rains came; Solemn is high in the handicap; Rapid Water, a winner on this card last year, could be fired up by the visors.
Hughie Morrison’s yard is in form and he has Sohraab down to a good mark (90): his success since the summer of 2008 came off 88, 93 and 96, prompting him to shoot up to 102 but, between 100 an 102, he still remained in the firing line (form figures 404220). Again, he’s a Newmarket winner, but the trainer sounds none too hopeful in his pre-race comments.
Judge ’n’ Jury won this race last year from stall 9 but is out in 20 today, and the same stable must be hoping to reignite the spark in Abraham Lincoln, once half-length second in a Group-3 for Aidan O’Brien.
The Harris barn also has Matsunosuke: he’s crashed down the ratings but doesn’t seem the same horse on turf as on AW; he’s still 12lb higher than his last win on grass, nearly three years ago.
It’s not a race to put the mortgage on but there are some decent offers on Betdaq: Rapid Water (12.0), Masamah (13.5), Sohraab (25.0) and Abraham Lincoln (27.0) are probably the best.
TODAY’S BETS:
BET: 4pts win KINGS ‘N DREAMS and 1.5pts win (saver) KANAF (3.25 Ascot)
BET 4.5pts win on each PENDRAGON and SEEKING THE BUCK (4.00 Ascot)
BET 4pts win RECORD BREAKER, plus 2.8pts win and 2pts place OPERA GAL (4.35 Ascot)
BET 1.8pts win RAPID WATER, 1.6pts win MASAMAH, 0.8pts win SOHRAAB and 0.75pts win ABRAHAM LINCOLN (5.10 Ascot)
Bet on these tips at Betdaq
Saturday 24 July