The Betalay system has been around for a few years now and has apparently sold very well over the years. The system claims to have made over £200,000 profit since July 2000 using £25 stakes. They claim that the results have been “independently verified”, although there is nothing to say who has verified them or where you can obtain proof of this.
The sales page also claims that the system is based on “in depth statistical research” and provides you with a “mathematical formula”. I would seriously question the validity of both of those statements! I’m probably one of the few people who don’t mind sales pages as a rule, but I think this is stretching the truth a little too far for my liking.
The system is very simple indeed, in fact I could probably sum up all the system rules in one sentence. This certainly backs up the claim that it is very quick and easy to find selections, however if you don’t have access to the internet and Betfair during racing hours (or don’t want to sit in front of your computer all day) you would need to use an automated betting bot to place the bets for you.
Sounds good in theory – a system that claims to make you thousands each year which you can run on autopilot. However as you may have guessed there are reasons to be cautious here.
The problem is that the “independently verified” results are all recorded to SP. As most of you may be aware, it is virtually impossible to lay horses at SP on the betting exchanges, you will almost always have to lay at higher prices to get your bets matched.
Research has shown that the betting exchange markets are efficient – this means for example that over time, horses priced at 8.0 will win one time in 8. Therefore there is no profit to be had in blindly laying or backing all horses dependent on just their price and market position. If you do this, you will only ever break even in the long run, and you will also have to pay commission on those times that you win.
Therefore when you consider that the Betalay results do not take Betfair or Betdaq commission into account, you can instantly see that you will never be able to replicate the figures that they advertise. In fact the likelihood is that you would actually be running at around break even or even a small loss when allowing for commission.
To be fair, the manual does suggest a method of partial loss recovery which you can employ after a losing lay in order to recoup part of your losses and “effectively” lay at SP. This in theory could make a big difference long term and would leave you with a profitable system. However, be aware of the downfalls of increasing your stakes to recover losses!
You would need to have a bank large enough to cope with the increased stakes that would be required if you had a few losing lays in a row, and be prepared to employ a stop loss if things start to get out of hand. You would also have to make sure that your betting bot was capable of implementing the loss recovery method should you choose to use it.
Overall this system may have some merit long term, providing you are comfortable using the partial loss recovery method (and I know many people are not). However, be aware that the advertised results will never be achievable in real life and if you do not use loss recovery you can’t even expect to make a profit at all. Also bear in mind that you will almost certainly need to purchase a betting bot in order to follow this system.